Replication file for "The Past and Future of U.S. Structural Change
Compositional Accounting and Forecasting" 
by Andrew Foerster, Andreas Hornstein, Pierre-Daniel Sarte and Mark Watson
September 2025

Calculations are carried using MATLAB (version 2024a)

The following are the main programs. In some cases, these need to be run in the specified order.

Figure_1_Table_1.m
  - produces Figure 1 and Table 1
VA_Shares_Components_Trends.m
  - computes trend values of matrices and VA shares
Figures_2_3_4.m
  - produces Figures 2-4
Reduced_Form_Forecasts_Main
  - generates reduced form forecasts of VA shares and components
Tables_2_3.m
  - produces Tables 2-3
epsilon_estimate_bayes
  - generates estimates for the elasticities of substitution
Table_4.m
  - produces Table 4
Figures_5_6_7_8.m
  - produces Figures 5-8
model_parameters.m
  - generates the parameters used in the structural model
Figures_9_10.m
  - produces Figures 9-10
Figures_11_12.m
  - produces Figures 11-12
forecasting_processes.m
  - generates draws of forecasts of model driving processes
Table_5.m
  - produces Table 5



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List of Figures and Tables in the Main Text
Figure 1: Figure_1_Table_1.m
Figure 2: Figures_2_3_4.m
Figure 3: Figures_2_3_4.m
Figure 4: Figures_2_3_4.m
Figure 5: Figures_5_6_7_8.m
Figure 6: Figures_5_6_7_8.m
Figure 7: Figures_5_6_7_8.m
Figure 8: Figures_5_6_7_8.m
Figure 9: Figures_9_10.m
Figure 10: Figures_9_10.m
Figure 11: Figures_11_12.m
Figure 12: Figures_11_12.m

Table 1: Figure_1_Table_1.m
Table 2: Tables_2_3.m
Table 3: Tables_2_3.m
Table 4: Table_4.m
Table 5: Table_5.m


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List of Figures and Tables in the Technical Appendix
Figure 1: epsilon_estimate_bayes_summarize.m
Figure 2: Figures_9_10.m
Figure 3: Figures_9_10.m after adjusting the epsilons in Figures_5_6_7_8.m
Figure 4: Figures_9_10.m after adjusting the epsilons in Figures_5_6_7_8.m

Table 1: epsilon_estimates_iv.m


